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ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
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TrueBlueDrew Online
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Post: #1
ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]
06-18-2018 04:39 PM
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Golota76 Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
Is there a link to this?
06-18-2018 05:09 PM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
I know many people bemoan any kind of computer model, but as the years pass, these will become much more accurate. This one and the Massey computer model seem to be more accurate than most.
06-18-2018 05:17 PM
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Arrowhead Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
Wow, they think highly of ULM.
06-18-2018 05:24 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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Post: #5
RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 04:39 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]

I like what you've done here but have a couple nits to pick:

1. Link to source
2. Math
06-18-2018 06:16 PM
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TrueBlueDrew Online
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 05:09 PM)Golota76 Wrote:  Is there a link to this?

(06-18-2018 06:16 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 04:39 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]

I like what you've done here but have a couple nits to pick:

1. Link to source
2. Math

I used the ESPN Match up predictor on the ESPN App. I went game by game and entered the predictions in a spreadsheet so it’s possible I fudged a few numbers. This was just a time killer while I waited for a conference call the start.
06-18-2018 06:25 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
Per ESPN FPI http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...eamratings

Chance of winning conference:

32.2% - stAte

24.7% - APP

16.1% - Troy
15.0% - ULM

9.7% - GS




0.7% - USA
0.6% - UL

0.4% GSU

0.3% - TXST
0.3% - CC

Click through the school name link to see these numbers.
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2018 06:54 PM by WinstonTheWolf.)
06-18-2018 06:32 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 06:25 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 05:09 PM)Golota76 Wrote:  Is there a link to this?

(06-18-2018 06:16 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 04:39 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]

I like what you've done here but have a couple nits to pick:

1. Link to source
2. Math

I used the ESPN Match up predictor on the ESPN App. I went game by game and entered the predictions in a spreadsheet so it’s possible I fudged a few numbers. This was just a time killer while I waited for a conference call the start.

I think we're using same data . . . the flaw in your methodology is that a team being favored @ 51% to win every game will likely finish around .500, and probably not undefeated in conference.
06-18-2018 06:35 PM
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GSUALUM17 Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
It's based on ESPN's own power index.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...eamratings

It says, "projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI." According to ESPN, its own FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is, and measures each team's true strength on a net points scale...either I'm having a blonde moment or ESPN merely told me to trust their simulations based on their own point system that was never really explained first place.
06-18-2018 07:31 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 07:31 PM)GSUALUM17 Wrote:  It's based on ESPN's own power index.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...eamratings

It says, "projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI." According to ESPN, its own FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is, and measures each team's true strength on a net points scale...either I'm having a blonde moment or ESPN merely told me to trust their simulations based on their own point system that was never really explained first place.

FPI is what I used as well . . .
06-18-2018 08:00 PM
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Klak Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 06:35 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 06:25 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 05:09 PM)Golota76 Wrote:  Is there a link to this?

(06-18-2018 06:16 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 04:39 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]

I like what you've done here but have a couple nits to pick:

1. Link to source
2. Math

I used the ESPN Match up predictor on the ESPN App. I went game by game and entered the predictions in a spreadsheet so it’s possible I fudged a few numbers. This was just a time killer while I waited for a conference call the start.

I think we're using same data . . . the flaw in your methodology is that a team being favored @ 51% to win every game will likely finish around .500, and probably not undefeated in conference.

The normal way to turn these percentages into records is to add up all the percentages to get your number of wins.

For instance for GS: 0.494 + 0.538 + 0.666 + 0.665 + 0.535 + 0.697 + 0.369 + 0.774 = 4.738 wins

So that's a predicted conference record of 4.738-3.262 (more likely to go 5-3 than 4-4).

They have 0.957 + 0.514 + 0.010 + 0.492 = 1.973 OOC wins, which makes an overall predicted record of 6.711-5.289. I think 7-5 or 6-6 is about what most GS fans are expecting and/or hoping for.
06-18-2018 08:03 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
It's interesting to me that Southern would be considered an underdog against ULM, but a favorite against stAte and Troy.

Also, I'm not sure on Troy only winning 5 SBC games. I mean its certainly possible, but essentially FPI is calling them a 6-6 team, which I would consider shocking.
06-18-2018 08:54 PM
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CardinalBlackTrojan Online
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
I looked at the predicted finish of the East, and I was like:

[Image: tenor.gif]
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2018 09:20 PM by CardinalBlackTrojan.)
06-18-2018 09:13 PM
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TrojansOneandAll Offline
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Post: #14
RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
Well, we know how accurate ESPN can be.....


[Image: XT0rzHa.jpg]
06-18-2018 11:44 PM
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NCeagle Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 11:44 PM)TrojansOneandAll Wrote:  Well, we know how accurate ESPN can be.....


[Image: XT0rzHa.jpg]

big difference in their computer models and commentators picking.
06-19-2018 07:45 AM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
ESPN gives Troy a 44.8% change of beating ULM, and I agree with that mostly. It's the conference opener in Monroe, and they bring back everyone on offense. If we're having growing pains on offense, it's an L for Troy.
06-19-2018 08:34 AM
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Georgia_Power_Company Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 04:39 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Here's the current ESPN predicted finish based on % chance of winning as of June 18, 2018, painstakingly organized and color coordinated for your reading pleasure. Don't shoot the messenger. 04-cheers

[Image: 2aU4D7j.jpg]

07-coffee3
06-19-2018 12:25 PM
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Arrowhead Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-19-2018 08:34 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  ESPN gives Troy a 44.8% change of beating ULM, and I agree with that mostly. It's the conference opener in Monroe, and they bring back everyone on offense. If we're having growing pains on offense, it's an L for Troy.

Should be a hell of a game and should tell us a lot about both of our teams. You going to make it to Monroe for the game?
06-19-2018 12:36 PM
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Yosef84 Online
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
As much as I love seeing any listing that shows App winning the East (or conference), I think the East is a horse race between Troy and App with App having more questions to answer, so I would say Troy would be the pre-season pick. The great thing about college sports is that a year can bring HUGE changes and teams often greatly exceed expectations. That what makes the games so interesting.
06-19-2018 12:38 PM
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Rik Flair Offline
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RE: ESPN % Chance of Winning for the SBC
(06-18-2018 11:44 PM)TrojansOneandAll Wrote:  Well, we know how accurate ESPN can be.....


[Image: XT0rzHa.jpg]


Can't get that image out of my head of our Nose guard getting TACKLED on 4th down! 03-hissyfit
06-19-2018 12:39 PM
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