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USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
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CardinalBlackTrojan Online
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Exclamation USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
Wasn't sure if this was posted already, but I found where USA Today used their formula to determine the conference rankings at the halfway point of this season.

The Sun Belt played the toughest schedule among the Group of 5 conferences.

Here is the link: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca.../92493842/

Here are the rankings:

1. Southeastern Conference
2. Atlantic Coast Conference
3. Big Ten Conference
4. Pac-12 Conference
5. Big 12 Conference
6. American Athletic Conference
7. Mountain West Conference
8. Mid-American Conference
9. Sun Belt Conference
10. Conference USA
11-07-2016 01:53 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 01:53 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  Wasn't sure if this was posted already, but I found where USA Today used their formula to determine the conference rankings at the halfway point of this season.

The Sun Belt played the toughest schedule among the Group of 5 conferences.

Here is the link: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca.../92493842/

Here are the rankings:

1. Southeastern Conference
2. Atlantic Coast Conference
3. Big Ten Conference
4. Pac-12 Conference
5. Big 12 Conference
6. American Athletic Conference
7. Mountain West Conference
8. Mid-American Conference
9. Sun Belt Conference
10. Conference USA

I really think it is debatable that the AAC isn't better than the Big XII. The top AAC team beat the top Big XII team and the bottom of the AAC isn't as bad as the bottom of the Big XII. The MAC is being carried by Western Michigan and C-USA.....well ODU and Charlotte are actually winning games.

And the SEC is best because their performance in conference trumps their performance out of conference....wait...oh nevermind.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2016 02:04 PM by ericsaid.)
11-07-2016 02:04 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
Much better here...same ole media going off rep instead of actually what is happening on the field. This is why I like computers being in the mix. The AAC is and should be higher than the Big 12.

http://www.colleyrankings.com/curconf.html
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2016 04:32 PM by JCGSU.)
11-07-2016 04:30 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.
11-07-2016 05:17 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 05:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.

Jeff Sagarin has something to do with this poll. Therefore the Sun Belt will be at a huge disadvantage. Safarin's point spread model for Sun Belt OOC games has a variance of almost 2 touchdowns. Garbage model.

Basically, Sagarin thinks that most of the Sun Belt would finish in the bottom half of FCS. Even though the MAC and the AAC have more FCS loases in the last 4 years.

Watch Coastal Carolina drop 40 spots in the rankings simply from moving from FCS to the Sun Belt between the end of this season and the beginning of next season.

----

All of the ratings tend to focus almost exclusively on point spreads, not wins and losses. The problem is that Belt teams play more top P5 teams and play more of them on the road. So we have a net negative point spread margin. Sagarin's model (and I suspect the others) really punishes teams for getting blown out.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2016 07:13 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
11-07-2016 07:09 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 07:09 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 05:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.

Jeff Sagarin has something to do with this poll. Therefore the Sun Belt will be at a huge disadvantage. Safarin's point spread model for Sun Belt OOC games has a variance of almost 2 touchdowns. Garbage model.

Basically, Sagarin thinks that most of the Sun Belt would finish in the bottom half of FCS. Even though the MAC and the AAC have more FCS loases in the last 4 years.

Watch Coastal Carolina drop 40 spots in the rankings simply from moving from FCS to the Sun Belt between the end of this season and the beginning of next season.

----

All of the ratings tend to focus almost exclusively on point spreads, not wins and losses. The problem is that Belt teams play more top P5 teams and play more of them on the road. So we have a net negative point spread margin. Sagarin's model (and I suspect the others) really punishes teams for getting blown out.

Sagarin is a decent estimate of point spreads. If you can prove you have a better indicator of outcomes of games than point spreads, then you should be filthy rich.
11-07-2016 07:25 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 07:25 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 07:09 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 05:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.

Jeff Sagarin has something to do with this poll. Therefore the Sun Belt will be at a huge disadvantage. Safarin's point spread model for Sun Belt OOC games has a variance of almost 2 touchdowns. Garbage model.

Basically, Sagarin thinks that most of the Sun Belt would finish in the bottom half of FCS. Even though the MAC and the AAC have more FCS loases in the last 4 years.

Watch Coastal Carolina drop 40 spots in the rankings simply from moving from FCS to the Sun Belt between the end of this season and the beginning of next season.

----

All of the ratings tend to focus almost exclusively on point spreads, not wins and losses. The problem is that Belt teams play more top P5 teams and play more of them on the road. So we have a net negative point spread margin. Sagarin's model (and I suspect the others) really punishes teams for getting blown out.

Sagarin is a decent estimate of point spreads. If you can prove you have a better indicator of outcomes of games than point spreads, then you should be filthy rich.

This year, I looked at Sagarin's prediction of every Sun Belt OOC game. Over 30 games. Point spread variance was almost 2 touchdowns. Just pick up the Sagarins and see who he predicted would win G5 vs SBC games. You'll get an eye opener.

Total point spread (especially one skewed by overmatched P5 away games) doesn't predict how the G5 conferenes do versus each other.

I don't have a 'better model'., but Sagarin's model is garbage for predicting how the Belt will perform vs FCS or other G5 conferences. Or how any particular game will go.
11-07-2016 07:35 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 07:35 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 07:25 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 07:09 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-07-2016 05:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.

Jeff Sagarin has something to do with this poll. Therefore the Sun Belt will be at a huge disadvantage. Safarin's point spread model for Sun Belt OOC games has a variance of almost 2 touchdowns. Garbage model.

Basically, Sagarin thinks that most of the Sun Belt would finish in the bottom half of FCS. Even though the MAC and the AAC have more FCS loases in the last 4 years.

Watch Coastal Carolina drop 40 spots in the rankings simply from moving from FCS to the Sun Belt between the end of this season and the beginning of next season.

----

All of the ratings tend to focus almost exclusively on point spreads, not wins and losses. The problem is that Belt teams play more top P5 teams and play more of them on the road. So we have a net negative point spread margin. Sagarin's model (and I suspect the others) really punishes teams for getting blown out.

Sagarin is a decent estimate of point spreads. If you can prove you have a better indicator of outcomes of games than point spreads, then you should be filthy rich.

This year, I looked at Sagarin's prediction of every Sun Belt OOC game. Over 30 games. Point spread variance was almost 2 touchdowns. Just pick up the Sagarins and see who he predicted would win G5 vs SBC games. You'll get an eye opener.

Total point spread (especially one skewed by overmatched P5 away games) doesn't predict how the G5 conferenes do versus each other.

I don't have a 'better model'., but Sagarin's model is garbage for predicting how the Belt will perform vs FCS or other G5 conferences. Or how any particular game will go.
A wide range of outcomes is inherent to college football, not an indictment on Sagarin or Vegas Lines. That's just how things roll - it's why we watch.

Ohio State beat Nebraska 62-3 . . .
11-07-2016 08:25 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
I think a predictor for success in sports is futile. Ultimately, what you are hoping for is to be right more often than you are wrong, and assigning too much weight to one variable over another can cause issues, which according to Tom, seems to be the case.
11-07-2016 08:25 PM
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MJG Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
South Alabama has the top two wins then maybe its NMSU and Idaho beating MWC teams.
The non conference is all that matters in these rankings.
11-07-2016 08:39 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 08:25 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I think a predictor for success in sports is futile. Ultimately, what you are hoping for is to be right more often than you are wrong, and assigning too much weight to one variable over another can cause issues, which according to Tom, seems to be the case.

It isn't. One just has to be extremely good to make it work. Ever heard of Billy Walters?

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_...ial-bettor
11-07-2016 08:40 PM
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Yosef Himself Offline
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RE: USA Today Midseason Conference Rankings
(11-07-2016 08:39 PM)MJG Wrote:  South Alabama has the top two wins then maybe its NMSU and Idaho beating MWC teams.
The non conference is all that matters in these rankings.


Eh, App beat two bowl (Akron will be after hey pound a pathetic BG) bound teams too.
11-07-2016 09:29 PM
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