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Vegas Week 10
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YesAppCan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 12:20 PM)moehler Wrote:  if GSU had any kind of offense they would be contending for the SBC championship, probably the same this week, great defensive effort, offense does nothing, and Ark St scores just enough to win a low scoring game.
I'm thinking this or Ga. State has just enough to hold off Ark. St... Close game I think.
10-31-2016 05:26 PM
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LatahCounty Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 03:44 PM)CAJUNCOUNTRY Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 03:57 PM)VandalBasher Wrote:  ULL is 6.5 favorites over the Vandals. This is a prove it game for Idaho.

I'd take Idaho and the 6.5

Better hurry. It's already down to 5.5. It actually opened at 7.5 but that didn't last long. Personally, I would have thought this would be a 3 point spread.
10-31-2016 06:00 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 11:52 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:41 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:36 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Arkansas State -2
Georgia State

Curious to see how Georgia State's defense handles ARKST.

FREE MONEY

Georgia State has a stout defense and Arkansas State's transition to a more traditional QB has generally looked at little more rough against tougher defenses. I think that this game will likely be similar to what State had to face with USA.


Meh. USA Didn't really stop us though. We passed the ball like 4 times in the entire 2nd half. We were up 17 points, knew they couldn't score 17 on our defense, so we just ran the ball the entire 2nd half to keep from turning the ball over and run clock.

In a sense, the same thing is possible here. If we get up a couple scores, we probably let the air out of it. But I'd argue we could have scored a lot more on USA had we not decided to play so conservatively.
10-31-2016 07:33 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 11:36 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Arkansas State -2
Georgia State

Curious to see how Georgia State's defense handles ARKST.

I'm curious which offense we throw out there. We literally went from a run first offense that only passed if absolutely necessary to a pass happy offense that used the run in short bursts to keep the defense honest. Which offense will Troy get?
10-31-2016 07:36 PM
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DudeTROY Offline
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Vegas Week 10
(10-30-2016 03:49 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App -30.5, book this one early as the line will rise, App by as many as Satt allows, but wait Withers is an App alum, Texas St scores an Idaho type TD to cover.

Ole Miss -25 v. GS., again bet this early Ole Miss by 35

Troy -23 v. UMass, UMass scores enough to cover and Troy looking ahead, Troy by 17.

USA -12.5 @ ULM, does ULM have enough healthy players remaining to field a team? If you think USA scores 28, take 'em.

No line for Ark St., if its Ark St -10 or lower take them, GA St won't score over 14.

1) App 45 TxSt 21

2) Miss 39 Southern 19

3) TU 37 UMass 28

4) ULM 28 ULM 24

5) stAte 41 GaSt 25
10-31-2016 08:09 PM
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OsageJ Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 08:09 PM)DudeTROY Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 03:49 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App -30.5, book this one early as the line will rise, App by as many as Satt allows, but wait Withers is an App alum, Texas St scores an Idaho type TD to cover.

Ole Miss -25 v. GS., again bet this early Ole Miss by 35

Troy -23 v. UMass, UMass scores enough to cover and Troy looking ahead, Troy by 17.

USA -12.5 @ ULM, does ULM have enough healthy players remaining to field a team? If you think USA scores 28, take 'em.

No line for Ark St., if its Ark St -10 or lower take them, GA St won't score over 14.

1) App 45 TxSt 21

2) Miss 39 Southern 19

3) TU 37 UMass 28

4) ULM 28 ULM 24

5) stAte 41 GaSt 25

Sorry to say I do believe ULM could lose that game. I am not so sure they could win it.
10-31-2016 11:00 PM
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Seminole Indian Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 07:36 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:36 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Arkansas State -2
Georgia State

Curious to see how Georgia State's defense handles ARKST.

I'm curious which offense we throw out there. We literally went from a run first offense that only passed if absolutely necessary to a pass happy offense that used the run in short bursts to keep the defense honest. Which offense will Troy get?
More a question of which Justice Hansen shows up, the really good one (just got his 2nd SBC POW), or that other guy.

Who knows , maybe the one your HC said looks like a Heisman trophy winner will make his debate.

Your defense is playing well enough, you might win with the "other guy" , but could be risky on the road.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2016 07:41 AM by Seminole Indian.)
11-01-2016 07:40 AM
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AppinSC Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 08:09 PM)DudeTROY Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 03:49 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App -30.5, book this one early as the line will rise, App by as many as Satt allows, but wait Withers is an App alum, Texas St scores an Idaho type TD to cover.

Ole Miss -25 v. GS., again bet this early Ole Miss by 35

Troy -23 v. UMass, UMass scores enough to cover and Troy looking ahead, Troy by 17.

USA -12.5 @ ULM, does ULM have enough healthy players remaining to field a team? If you think USA scores 28, take 'em.

No line for Ark St., if its Ark St -10 or lower take them, GA St won't score over 14.

1) App 45 TxSt 21

2) Miss 39 Southern 19

3) TU 37 UMass 28

4) ULM 28 ULM 24

5) stAte 41 GaSt 25

I would be really surprised (read shocked) if Texas State scores 21 points on App this week. I would be equally shocked if we score 45 on them.
11-01-2016 09:36 AM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-01-2016 09:36 AM)AppinSC Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 08:09 PM)DudeTROY Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 03:49 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App -30.5, book this one early as the line will rise, App by as many as Satt allows, but wait Withers is an App alum, Texas St scores an Idaho type TD to cover.

Ole Miss -25 v. GS., again bet this early Ole Miss by 35

Troy -23 v. UMass, UMass scores enough to cover and Troy looking ahead, Troy by 17.

USA -12.5 @ ULM, does ULM have enough healthy players remaining to field a team? If you think USA scores 28, take 'em.

No line for Ark St., if its Ark St -10 or lower take them, GA St won't score over 14.

1) App 45 TxSt 21

2) Miss 39 Southern 19

3) TU 37 UMass 28

4) ULM 28 ULM 24

5) stAte 41 GaSt 25

I would be really surprised (read shocked) if Texas State scores 21 points on App this week. I would be equally shocked if we score 45 on them.

We are playing the worst defense in FBS. Vegas has App State total at 43.
11-01-2016 09:58 AM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-01-2016 09:58 AM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  We are playing the worst defense in FBS. Vegas has App State total at 43.

Monroe's defense is worse by a point and a half per game. New Mexico State is even worse. ULM and NMSU take the 126 and 127 spots.
11-01-2016 10:06 AM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-01-2016 10:06 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(11-01-2016 09:58 AM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  We are playing the worst defense in FBS. Vegas has App State total at 43.

Monroe's defense is worse by a point and a half per game. New Mexico State is even worse. ULM and NMSU take the 126 and 127 spots.

True enough, if you're using PPG. I was actually using defensive efficiencies from the ESPN FPI. S&P+ does have ULM at 128, with Texas State 127, so I'll concede ULM is worse, but only slightly.
11-01-2016 10:11 AM
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kevinwmsn Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
Vegas is favoring us by 12? I guess they haven't watch a lot of film. Our offense isn't scoring enough points.
11-01-2016 12:51 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-01-2016 12:51 PM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Vegas is favoring us by 12? I guess they haven't watch a lot of film. Our offense isn't scoring enough points.

You're playing a Bottom 3 defense and the worst run defense in the nation. That fast running back you have can gobble up 28 points on his own.
11-01-2016 12:59 PM
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BRtransplant Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-30-2016 09:29 PM)tennischamp Wrote:  Troy won't beat UMass by 20+ points. UMass is the most underrated 2-win team in the country... only lost by 6 points to South Carolina, who just upset #18 Tennessee... and they gave South Carolina all they could handle... and honestly probably should've beat them.

UMASS has no pass defense whatsoever. If Troy has a decent passing game, they'll beat the Patriots by 20+ points easily. UMASS does have a very good tight end. He caught everything thrown his way against us when we played them, so I expect a high scoring game. Something like Troy 45 - UMASS 21.
11-02-2016 04:00 AM
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Yosef84 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-02-2016 04:00 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 09:29 PM)tennischamp Wrote:  Troy won't beat UMass by 20+ points. UMass is the most underrated 2-win team in the country... only lost by 6 points to South Carolina, who just upset #18 Tennessee... and they gave South Carolina all they could handle... and honestly probably should've beat them.

UMASS has no pass defense whatsoever. If Troy has a decent passing game, they'll beat the Patriots by 20+ points easily. UMASS does have a very good tight end. He caught everything thrown his way against us when we played them, so I expect a high scoring game. Something like Troy 45 - UMASS 21.

Minutemen, not "Patriots"
11-02-2016 04:43 AM
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USAJag2011 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-02-2016 04:00 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 09:29 PM)tennischamp Wrote:  Troy won't beat UMass by 20+ points. UMass is the most underrated 2-win team in the country... only lost by 6 points to South Carolina, who just upset #18 Tennessee... and they gave South Carolina all they could handle... and honestly probably should've beat them.

UMASS has no pass defense whatsoever. If Troy has a decent passing game, they'll beat the Patriots by 20+ points easily. UMASS does have a very good tight end. He caught everything thrown his way against us when we played them, so I expect a high scoring game. Something like Troy 45 - UMASS 21.

Troy was able to put 2-3 guys on our really good TE and blanket him most of the night (partly because our best receiver was out), I don't think they'll have an issue with this guy.
11-02-2016 07:48 AM
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AtlantaJag Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(10-31-2016 07:33 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:52 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:41 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:36 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Arkansas State -2
Georgia State

Curious to see how Georgia State's defense handles ARKST.

FREE MONEY

Georgia State has a stout defense and Arkansas State's transition to a more traditional QB has generally looked at little more rough against tougher defenses. I think that this game will likely be similar to what State had to face with USA.


Meh. USA Didn't really stop us though. We passed the ball like 4 times in the entire 2nd half. We were up 17 points, knew they couldn't score 17 on our defense, so we just ran the ball the entire 2nd half to keep from turning the ball over and run clock.

In a sense, the same thing is possible here. If we get up a couple scores, we probably let the air out of it. But I'd argue we could have scored a lot more on USA had we not decided to play so conservatively.

ArkSt was actually pretty balanced in both halves. 8 passes and 28 runs in the first half, 5 passes and 26 runs in the second half. I think your coaching staff was wisely avoiding the USA secondary and playing strength against weakness in running against the Jags. GaSt is very good against the run and has a tough secondary. Luckily for ArkSt their QB seems to have improved steadily throughout the year.
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2016 09:28 AM by AtlantaJag.)
11-02-2016 09:26 AM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-02-2016 09:26 AM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 07:33 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:52 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:41 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:36 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Arkansas State -2
Georgia State

Curious to see how Georgia State's defense handles ARKST.

FREE MONEY

Georgia State has a stout defense and Arkansas State's transition to a more traditional QB has generally looked at little more rough against tougher defenses. I think that this game will likely be similar to what State had to face with USA.


Meh. USA Didn't really stop us though. We passed the ball like 4 times in the entire 2nd half. We were up 17 points, knew they couldn't score 17 on our defense, so we just ran the ball the entire 2nd half to keep from turning the ball over and run clock.

In a sense, the same thing is possible here. If we get up a couple scores, we probably let the air out of it. But I'd argue we could have scored a lot more on USA had we not decided to play so conservatively.

ArkSt was actually pretty balanced in both halves. 8 passes and 28 runs in the first half, 5 passes and 26 runs in the second half. I think your coaching staff was wisely avoiding the USA secondary and playing strength against weakness in running against the Jags. GaSt is very good against the run and has a tough secondary. Luckily for ArkSt their QB seems to have improved steadily throughout the year.

54 runs and 13 passes over the course of a 60 minute game is balanced?
11-02-2016 09:48 AM
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OsageJ Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-02-2016 09:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:26 AM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 07:33 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:52 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(10-31-2016 11:41 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  FREE MONEY

Georgia State has a stout defense and Arkansas State's transition to a more traditional QB has generally looked at little more rough against tougher defenses. I think that this game will likely be similar to what State had to face with USA.


Meh. USA Didn't really stop us though. We passed the ball like 4 times in the entire 2nd half. We were up 17 points, knew they couldn't score 17 on our defense, so we just ran the ball the entire 2nd half to keep from turning the ball over and run clock.

In a sense, the same thing is possible here. If we get up a couple scores, we probably let the air out of it. But I'd argue we could have scored a lot more on USA had we not decided to play so conservatively.

ArkSt was actually pretty balanced in both halves. 8 passes and 28 runs in the first half, 5 passes and 26 runs in the second half. I think your coaching staff was wisely avoiding the USA secondary and playing strength against weakness in running against the Jags. GaSt is very good against the run and has a tough secondary. Luckily for ArkSt their QB seems to have improved steadily throughout the year.

54 runs and 13 passes over the course of a 60 minute game is balanced?

I think he was comparing halves not runs and passes.
11-02-2016 09:50 AM
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Steve1981 Offline
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RE: Vegas Week 10
(11-02-2016 07:48 AM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 04:00 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  
(10-30-2016 09:29 PM)tennischamp Wrote:  Troy won't beat UMass by 20+ points. UMass is the most underrated 2-win team in the country... only lost by 6 points to South Carolina, who just upset #18 Tennessee... and they gave South Carolina all they could handle... and honestly probably should've beat them.

UMASS has no pass defense whatsoever. If Troy has a decent passing game, they'll beat the Patriots by 20+ points easily. UMASS does have a very good tight end. He caught everything thrown his way against us when we played them, so I expect a high scoring game. Something like Troy 45 - UMASS 21.

Troy was able to put 2-3 guys on our really good TE and blanket him most of the night (partly because our best receiver was out), I don't think they'll have an issue with this guy.

Don't think there is much doubt that Troy will win.

Did not want to start a new thread so will pollute this one with some Head Coach Neil Brown info. Well add that we got rid of the AD who chose both Kevin Morris and Charley Molnar over Neil Brown. It was the turning point when Kevin Morris was hired over Neil Brown. We've been in the dumpster since then and just this year showing signs of climbing out.

Quote:By MATT VAUTOUR
@MattVautourDHG
Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Neal Brown’s life-changing decision came somewhere on the 5-hour bus ride between Lexington, Kentucky, and Wheeling, West Virginia, in early 2003.

Back then, the recently graduated UMass wide receiver had just finished the season for the Lexington Horsemen of the National Indoor Football League.

Before the Horsemen’s playoff game with the Ohio Valley Greyhounds, UMass coach Mark Whipple had offered Brown a job.

After Lexington’s loss, Brown spent the ride home deciding whether or not to take the offer.

By the time the team pulled into Rupp Arena, their home base, Brown had decided to become a football coach.

“I knew my playing career wasn’t going anywhere, but I was putting off the real world as long as possible,” said Brown, who is now the head coach of Troy and will face UMass Saturday at 3:30 p.m.

Graduate assistant gigs are tough with long hours and low pay, but it was a natural fit for Brown, whose father, uncle and grandfather all coached high school football in Kentucky.

Brown spent just one year with Whipple, who was hired as the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks coach after the 2003 season.

“He was really smart. He loved the game, did things the right way,” Whipple said. “He did a good job in school, was a great guy to coach.”

Brown went to Sacred Heart when then-UMass special teams coordinator Paul Gorham became the head coach.

Gorham, who is now UMass’ director of football operations, increased his responsibilities quickly. Brown was the quarterbacks and wide receivers coach, making him a vital part of creating Sacred Heart’s offensive game plans.

“Paul Gorham gave me a lot of responsibility at an extremely young age and I grew more in that year with him than I have at any point during my professional career,” Brown said. “I think the world of him. He’s a great coach and tremendous human being. I look forward to seeing him.”

Gorham recognized something in Brown right away.

“He was mature beyond his years. His football acumen was good. He wasn’t intimidated even though he was only a year or two older than the kids he was coaching,” Gorham said. “I knew he’d be good. I didn’t know he’d be one of the youngest Division I head coaches in the country.”

Brown continued his speedy ladder climb when he left Sacred Heart after one year. He was Delaware’s receivers coach for a season before he landed at Troy, where he spent two years coaching wide receivers. In 2008, Brown was promoted to offensive coordinator and at 27 years old, he was the youngest coordinator in the FBS.

During that stint, he began honing his signature offense, which has been nicknamed the “NASCAR spread” for the speed it runs at. His 2009 team was third in the nation with 485.7 yards per game.

He was a sought-after coordinator, bouncing to Texas Tech (2010-12) and then to Kentucky (2013-14), where he played for two seasons before transferring to UMass.

Three years later, Brown got his shot when Troy hired him in 2015.

“It’s a lot about who you know in this profession,” said Brown, still among the nation’s youngest coaches at 36. “I’ve had some good breaks and have been fortunate to be around some really good people.”

The Trojans, who had three losing seasons in the four years before he arrived, were 4-8 in 2015, his first season. But Troy is already bowl eligible at 6-1 and is in first place in the Sun Belt at 4-0.

It’s the de facto No. 29 team in the nation, coming in fourth in The Associated Press Top 25’s also receiving votes section.

“I’m not sure how good we are, but we’re off to a good start,” Brown said.

Whipple has kept track of Brown’s career.

“I’m not surprised at the success he’s had and the career he’s going to have. I’m excited for him,” Whipple said. “He deserves what he gets. He works. The kids respect him. You can tell the way they’re playing. They’re making a lot of plays. It says a lot about his leadership.”

The series between UMass and Troy, which includes a 2018 game in Amherst, was set before Brown had been hired. Neither Whipple nor Brown liked the idea of facing a friend.

“I wouldn’t schedule it if he was the coach again,” Whipple said. “It’s why I won’t schedule with (UNH coach) Sean McDonnell. It wasn’t easy playing against Donny Brown (no relation to Neal) when he was at Northeastern or when he was at Maryland and I was at Miami.”

Whipple said he and Neal Brown, who caught 58 passes and four touchdowns for him, are often in touch during the offseason.

“It’s always good to see him. He’s a great kid,” said Whipple, who then corrected himself slightly. “A great guy.”

Brown said Saturday will be a rare time he isn’t rooting for UMass.

“It’s a game, that if I had my druthers, I’d probably rather not play. But it’s on our schedule,” Brown said. “That’s a place I care a great deal about. I want them to be successful. I owe a lot to Coach Whipple. He gave me an opportunity to come to UMass and for the first time in my life be away from home. I grew up a lot as a man there.

“Professionally he gave me an opportunity to get in as a G.A.,” he continued. “I learned a lot of football from Coach Whipple. A lot of the things we do in the run game and some of our down the field throws all come directly from him.”

Brown might not be at Troy when the Trojans face UMass in 2018. Sports Illustrated already included him on a list of coaches who could be targeted for bigger jobs.

Brown said he hasn’t given any thought to the speed of his rise through the ranks. He’s just glad to be coaching.

“I’m just trying to do the best I can with this opportunity,” he said. “I can’t imagine doing anything else. You’re able to stay young. You’re competitive juices are lit because you’re competing every single day. I can’t think of anything I’d rather be doing.”
Matt Vautour can be reached at mvautour@gazettenet.com. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at http://www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage
11-02-2016 10:32 AM
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