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-16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
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NIUtrav09 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(08-31-2009 05:39 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I would take it, this is a 20-10 badger victory, niu covers.

FYI, the over/under is at 50. I may be taking the under.
09-01-2009 12:02 PM
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HuskiemobileMan Offline
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Post: #22
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Bet on W. Mich to cover vs Mich.
09-01-2009 12:16 PM
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badgertim Offline
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Post: #23
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
UW will have a 14 + lead but NIU scores a late td.

Anyone that bets on college football desvers to lose the money.

See you in Madison.
09-01-2009 12:31 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 12:31 PM)badgertim Wrote:  UW will have a 14 + lead but NIU scores a late td.

Anyone that bets on college football desvers to lose the money.

See you in Madison.

Just thinking off the top of my head, it seems mid major upsets happen quite infrequently on the opening week of the season, they always seem to be a few weeks in. Is this just bad recollecting on my part or does it seem like the upsets rarely come opening week (obviously Maryland NIU a big exception :)) Maybe it says something as to the physical conditioning of the teams, and in the opening week the physical mismatches are more clearly seen, not sure.
09-01-2009 01:26 PM
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HuskieFan84 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
I don't think the physical conditioning has anything to do with it. Are you implying they are just in better shape? If so that's pretty stupid.

I'd say if you are correct, which I have no evidence you are, there are a few much better explanations for it.
-That it would be due to injuries to star players on some teams making them vulnerable to teams that were not as good as them originally.
-The big name teams are not going to take anyone lightly their first game of the season, be it Charleston Southern, Tennessee Tech, or USC or Florida. Whoever they play in their first game, they are as pumped as they can be, and won't be likely to overlook an opponent.
-Also, the first game for a big team is almost gauranteed to be at home. They are more likely to be OOC on the road later in the season (assuming they go to another stadium).
-As the season goes on, a big name school could be more focused on their more important games, while the mid-major may have had that date circled on their calendar for a while, and are more than ready to play that big time program.

I'm not saying your theory is right, but I'm certain if it is, that it's not because mid-major teams are out of shape.
09-01-2009 01:53 PM
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7 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
MD you really need to stop with the smiley faces.
09-01-2009 02:06 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 01:53 PM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  I don't think the physical conditioning has anything to do with it. Are you implying they are just in better shape? If so that's pretty stupid.

I'd say if you are correct, which I have no evidence you are, there are a few much better explanations for it.
-That it would be due to injuries to star players on some teams making them vulnerable to teams that were not as good as them originally.
-The big name teams are not going to take anyone lightly their first game of the season, be it Charleston Southern, Tennessee Tech, or USC or Florida. Whoever they play in their first game, they are as pumped as they can be, and won't be likely to overlook an opponent.
-Also, the first game for a big team is almost gauranteed to be at home. They are more likely to be OOC on the road later in the season (assuming they go to another stadium).
-As the season goes on, a big name school could be more focused on their more important games, while the mid-major may have had that date circled on their calendar for a while, and are more than ready to play that big time program.

I'm not saying your theory is right, but I'm certain if it is, that it's not because mid-major teams are out of shape.

Im not sure I mean better physical condition, but if you do have a large size discrepancy between two teams I just wonder if the fatigue factor will show up more quickly very early in the season as opposed to mid season. I'm not really sure if that is true or not and i do not know what I'm talking about just throwing it out there to see if anyone had any thoughts on it.

Yeah 7, I do need to stop the smileys, a bad bad bad habit. (just deleted a smiley that was inserted here before submitting) hah
09-01-2009 02:23 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 02:23 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(09-01-2009 01:53 PM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  I don't think the physical conditioning has anything to do with it. Are you implying they are just in better shape? If so that's pretty stupid.

I'd say if you are correct, which I have no evidence you are, there are a few much better explanations for it.
-That it would be due to injuries to star players on some teams making them vulnerable to teams that were not as good as them originally.
-The big name teams are not going to take anyone lightly their first game of the season, be it Charleston Southern, Tennessee Tech, or USC or Florida. Whoever they play in their first game, they are as pumped as they can be, and won't be likely to overlook an opponent.
-Also, the first game for a big team is almost gauranteed to be at home. They are more likely to be OOC on the road later in the season (assuming they go to another stadium).
-As the season goes on, a big name school could be more focused on their more important games, while the mid-major may have had that date circled on their calendar for a while, and are more than ready to play that big time program.

I'm not saying your theory is right, but I'm certain if it is, that it's not because mid-major teams are out of shape.

Im not sure I mean better physical condition, but if you do have a large size discrepancy between two teams I just wonder if the fatigue factor will show up more quickly very early in the season as opposed to mid season. I'm not really sure if that is true or not and i do not know what I'm talking about just throwing it out there to see if anyone had any thoughts on it.

Yeah 7, I do need to stop the smileys, a bad bad bad habit. (just deleted a smiley that was inserted here before submitting) hah

Just one other point, I would imagine the weather has something to do with it also. Fatigue will set in much quicker at 80 degrees versus 55 degrees.
09-01-2009 02:29 PM
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TheNEWguy Offline
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Post: #29
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
He's not exactly correct.

In fact MD is wrong on this one. While it may "seem" to him that upsets don't happen as frequently the percent chance they do is. I read a book on this once, but in weeks 1-2 upsets happen at a 5% higher clip or something like that.

I don't know the exact numbers, I just know that Week 1 is your upset week.

The actual theory as to the "why" is that handicappers don't have a full grip on the teams until they actually take the field. Remember these are college kids and a lot of them are still growing and in some mid major schools recruits will come out of no where (maybe a guy like Baxter) that linesmakers will miss. So in weeks 1-2 upsets are more likely, but in the end of the season some of those games don't appear as if they were upsets at all.
09-01-2009 02:42 PM
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cyberdawg Offline
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Post: #30
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Let me again try & provocate replies.

Size and depth matters in many circumstances - as this is but one of them.

So sad to be negative but I guess it's simply my way of protecting myself from too great a disappointment.

We are on the road against lines which significantly outweigh the dawgs and which go much deeper than NIU.
Lbs for lbs - the badgers will gradually pound us into submission over 60 minutes.

This aint no remake of MD, Bama nor Tenn.
_____

Was Appalach ST over UM in week one?

Seems like I recall a few others as well.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2009 04:37 PM by cyberdawg.)
09-01-2009 04:28 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 02:42 PM)TheNEWguy Wrote:  He's not exactly correct.

In fact MD is wrong on this one. While it may "seem" to him that upsets don't happen as frequently the percent chance they do is. I read a book on this once, but in weeks 1-2 upsets happen at a 5% higher clip or something like that.

I don't know the exact numbers, I just know that Week 1 is your upset week.

The actual theory as to the "why" is that handicappers don't have a full grip on the teams until they actually take the field. Remember these are college kids and a lot of them are still growing and in some mid major schools recruits will come out of no where (maybe a guy like Baxter) that linesmakers will miss. So in weeks 1-2 upsets are more likely, but in the end of the season some of those games don't appear as if they were upsets at all.

Thanks for doing the research! I was not at all sure just going by internal memory. As I get older I find relying on your memory is less and less of a good idea.
09-01-2009 04:53 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 04:28 PM)cyberdawg Wrote:  Let me again try & provocate replies.

Size and depth matters in many circumstances - as this is but one of them.

So sad to be negative but I guess it's simply my way of protecting myself from too great a disappointment.

We are on the road against lines which significantly outweigh the dawgs and which go much deeper than NIU.
Lbs for lbs - the badgers will gradually pound us into submission over 60 minutes.

This aint no remake of MD, Bama nor Tenn.
_____

Was Appalach ST over UM in week one?

Seems like I recall a few others as well.

Obviously if NIU has any chance of pulling off an upset they absolutely must get out to the early lead. A Wisconsin 14 pt lead is really like a 28 pt lead.

And cybes I certainly hope we do not see a remake of the poor offensive effort at Tennessee. NIU should be able to do a few things against this Wisconsin defense. Might not be enough to win but hopefuly we see a better showing than Tennessee.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2009 04:56 PM by MaddDawgz02.)
09-01-2009 04:54 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 04:28 PM)cyberdawg Wrote:  Let me again try & provocate replies.

Size and depth matters in many circumstances - as this is but one of them.

So sad to be negative but I guess it's simply my way of protecting myself from too great a disappointment.

We are on the road against lines which significantly outweigh the dawgs and which go much deeper than NIU.
Lbs for lbs - the badgers will gradually pound us into submission over 60 minutes.

This aint no remake of MD, Bama nor Tenn.
_____

Was Appalach ST over UM in week one?

Seems like I recall a few others as well.

If Cal Poly can nearly beat the Badgers, why not the Huskies!?
09-01-2009 04:59 PM
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CowboysNiuFan31245 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Hey just curious what website do you guys go to get the lines? Also is there one for the NFL games?
09-01-2009 05:51 PM
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UIHuskie Offline
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Post: #35
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 05:51 PM)CowboysNiuFan31245 Wrote:  Hey just curious what website do you guys go to get the lines? Also is there one for the NFL games?

You can get them all over, but here's an ESPN link to save you some time:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/dailylines
09-01-2009 05:56 PM
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CowboysNiuFan31245 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 05:56 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  
(09-01-2009 05:51 PM)CowboysNiuFan31245 Wrote:  Hey just curious what website do you guys go to get the lines? Also is there one for the NFL games?

You can get them all over, but here's an ESPN link to save you some time:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/dailylines

Thanks a ton!
09-01-2009 06:12 PM
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NIUtrav09 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Line has moved to 17. This means early money is On Wisconsin (pun intended).
09-01-2009 07:22 PM
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NIUtrav09 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
(09-01-2009 06:12 PM)CowboysNiuFan31245 Wrote:  
(09-01-2009 05:56 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  
(09-01-2009 05:51 PM)CowboysNiuFan31245 Wrote:  Hey just curious what website do you guys go to get the lines? Also is there one for the NFL games?

You can get them all over, but here's an ESPN link to save you some time:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/dailylines

Thanks a ton!

covers.com is a very cool website.
09-01-2009 07:23 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Wisconsin has not lost a non-conference home game since 2003, yikes, that is ridiculous. Hmmm 2003....karma? (not sure if I used the word karma right , not sure what it means but it sounds right)
09-01-2009 08:19 PM
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7 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: -16.5. Anyone gonna take it?
Here are their home OOC opponents from 04-08:
UCF
UNLV
Bowling Green
Temple
Western Illinois
San Diego State
Washington State
The Citadel
NIU
Akron
Marshall
Cal Poly

A lot of teams would be undefeated against those teams at home.
09-01-2009 08:24 PM
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