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SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Printable Version

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SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - OrangeDude - 12-24-2018 08:57 PM

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/12/24/Media/Sports-media.aspx

The ACC Network’s launch will look more like that of the Big Ten Network — which endured a couple of years of brutal carriage fights — than the launch of the SEC Network — which nearly had full distribution from the start. ESPN already has a negotiating blueprint thanks to its Altice deal. Plus, you won’t find a better distribution executive than Justin Connolly, who was behind the SEC Network’s launch. It won’t be an unqualified success, but it will be good enough to keep schools happy.

Lots of other 2019 sports predictions as well, but this is the only one that is ACC-related.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Cheers,
Neil


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - tj_2009 - 12-26-2018 01:22 AM

(12-24-2018 08:57 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/12/24/Media/Sports-media.aspx

The ACC Network’s launch will look more like that of the Big Ten Network — which endured a couple of years of brutal carriage fights — than the launch of the SEC Network — which nearly had full distribution from the start. ESPN already has a negotiating blueprint thanks to its Altice deal. Plus, you won’t find a better distribution executive than Justin Connolly, who was behind the SEC Network’s launch. It won’t be an unqualified success, but it will be good enough to keep schools happy.

Lots of other 2019 sports predictions as well, but this is the only one that is ACC-related.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Cheers,
Neil

Sounds reasonable. Its hard to be super successful in the first few years of any venture so as long as its not a total flop, i am guessing the schools will be happy.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Hokie Mark - 12-26-2018 07:43 AM

Here's what I'm projecting for the ACC Network:

Year : $M/school
2019 : $5 M
2020 : $8.5 M
2021 : $10 M
2022 : $12 M
then level at $12 M


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - TIGER-PAUL - 12-26-2018 04:04 PM

The ACC Network launch will be considered a modified success.

The ACC Network’s launch will look more like that of the Big Ten Network — which endured a couple of years of brutal carriage fights — than the launch of the SEC Network — which nearly had full distribution from the start. ESPN already has a negotiating blueprint thanks to its Altice deal. Plus, you won’t find a better distribution executive than Justin Connolly, who was behind the SEC Network’s launch. It won’t be an unqualified success, but it will be good enough to keep schools happy.


modified?


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Hokie Mark - 12-26-2018 04:06 PM

(12-26-2018 04:04 PM)TIGER-PAUL Wrote:  The ACC Network launch will be considered a modified success.

The ACC Network’s launch will look more like that of the Big Ten Network — which endured a couple of years of brutal carriage fights — than the launch of the SEC Network — which nearly had full distribution from the start. ESPN already has a negotiating blueprint thanks to its Altice deal. Plus, you won’t find a better distribution executive than Justin Connolly, who was behind the SEC Network’s launch. It won’t be an unqualified success, but it will be good enough to keep schools happy.


modified?

At least they didn't say "modicum"


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - msm96wolf - 12-26-2018 04:42 PM

(12-26-2018 07:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's what I'm projecting for the ACC Network:

Year : $M/school
2019 : $5 M
2020 : $8.5 M
2021 : $10 M
2022 : $12 M
then level at $12 M

I be happy with that. I actually think there will be more demand for the network during basketball season. Also, from what I remember, the ESPN carriage deals were coming up with many providers in 2019. One reason why the mouse wanted a 2019 start date.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - OrangeDude - 12-26-2018 08:45 PM

And so it begins. Disney/ESPN vs Verizon Fios

Got both of these from the syracusefan.com board.

Disney vs Verizon Fios

Disney Verizon Standoff

Cheers,
Neil


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - XLance - 12-26-2018 09:53 PM

Tough negotiators.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Cody6003 - 12-27-2018 11:51 AM

(12-26-2018 07:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's what I'm projecting for the ACC Network:

Year : $M/school
2019 : $5 M
2020 : $8.5 M
2021 : $10 M
2022 : $12 M
then level at $12 M

So Big 10 schools each get over 50 m and this is what we can expect? Level off at 12 M? I hope this isn’t true.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Hokie Mark - 12-27-2018 11:54 AM

(12-27-2018 11:51 AM)Cody6003 Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 07:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's what I'm projecting for the ACC Network:

Year : $M/school
2019 : $5 M
2020 : $8.5 M
2021 : $10 M
2022 : $12 M
then level at $12 M

So Big 10 schools each get over 50 m and this is what we can expect? Level off at 12 M? I hope this isn’t true.

That's $12M PLUS the regular contract (another $24M IIRC) PLUS other conference revenues = about $42M or so... THAT's what you have to compare to the Big Ten's $50M. In fact, by 2036 the ACC could be making over $50M as well (I say "could"). A lot just depends on things like the economy, tv market growth, etc., etc.

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2018/06/2017-fsu-ad-statement-revisited.html


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - OrangeDude - 12-27-2018 12:12 PM

(12-27-2018 11:51 AM)Cody6003 Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 07:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's what I'm projecting for the ACC Network:

Year : $M/school
2019 : $5 M
2020 : $8.5 M
2021 : $10 M
2022 : $12 M
then level at $12 M

So Big 10 schools each get over 50 m and this is what we can expect? Level off at 12 M? I hope this isn’t true.

To be clear, the Big Ten isn't getting $50 million from just the BTN - although the way they overhype themselves and the BTN it does sometimes seem like they believe it to be so.

That $50 million includes everything involved in a conference distribution check (CFP/NY6 monies, NCAA bb unit monies, non-NY6 bowl monies, the National TV contracts with ABC/ESPN and FOX, the CBS basketball contract, conference championships monies in football and basketball, etc.). So considering the fact that the ACC will likely always lag behind the Big Ten in things like national TV contract monies, non-NY6 Bowl monies, not having a separate CBS basketball TV contract, it is important that the ACC gets closer by other means such as NCAA bb units, hopefully raising the Orange Bowl deal when the next contract comes up, and having a successful launch of the ACCN.

The goal is twofold - first get out of fifth place in terms of conference payout and be firmly placed as the third best conference overall and stay within striking distance of both the SEC and the B1G.

Until ACC football improves beyond being a two-team league for football with FSU and Clemson, that's the best we can do for now. With Miami and VT still mired in good but not great and Louisville taking a huge step backwards I don't see things changing much until the league gets 5 football programs getting consistently good ratings year in and year out. I still have hope we will get there, but we certainly are a ways off at the moment with plenty of work to do. As a Syracuse fan I hope we can finally start assisting in this as well.

Cheers,
Neil


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - ICThawk - 12-30-2018 02:00 PM

Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - Statefan - 12-30-2018 02:15 PM

(12-30-2018 02:00 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

The Mouse always wins.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - XLance - 12-30-2018 02:19 PM

(12-30-2018 02:00 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

A very interesting comment in Bloomberg's article re: the SEC network

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

The agreement, if finalized, shows that pay-TV operators are still willing to pay for pricey sports channels even in an age of video streaming and declining viewership. Disney was able to win price increases for its programming and the pickup of a new channel, the ACC Network, according to a person familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified.


"The number of pay-TV subscribers who get ESPN fell 2.3 percent to 86 million last year. Less-popular Disney-owned channels, such as the SEC Network and ESPN News, experienced even greater declines."


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - OrangeDude - 12-30-2018 02:40 PM

(12-30-2018 02:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:00 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

A very interesting comment in Bloomberg's article re: the SEC network

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

The agreement, if finalized, shows that pay-TV operators are still willing to pay for pricey sports channels even in an age of video streaming and declining viewership. Disney was able to win price increases for its programming and the pickup of a new channel, the ACC Network, according to a person familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified.


"The number of pay-TV subscribers who get ESPN fell 2.3 percent to 86 million last year. Less-popular Disney-owned channels, such as the SEC Network and ESPN News, experienced even greater declines."

I didn't find that so surprising since with fewer subscribers, the percentage drop would be "greater". Without having the raw data it's hard to quantify. The most important piece in the article, imho, is what you highlighted in the prior paragraph about getting price increases for its current channels as well as getting the new channel (ACCN) carried. As always, the devil will be in the details of the deal.

Cheers,
Neil


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - XLance - 12-30-2018 04:55 PM

(12-30-2018 02:40 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:00 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

A very interesting comment in Bloomberg's article re: the SEC network

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

The agreement, if finalized, shows that pay-TV operators are still willing to pay for pricey sports channels even in an age of video streaming and declining viewership. Disney was able to win price increases for its programming and the pickup of a new channel, the ACC Network, according to a person familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified.


"The number of pay-TV subscribers who get ESPN fell 2.3 percent to 86 million last year. Less-popular Disney-owned channels, such as the SEC Network and ESPN News, experienced even greater declines."

I didn't find that so surprising since with fewer subscribers, the percentage drop would be "greater". Without having the raw data it's hard to quantify. The most important piece in the article, imho, is what you highlighted in the prior paragraph about getting price increases for its current channels as well as getting the new channel (ACCN) carried. As always, the devil will be in the details of the deal.

Cheers,
Neil


Being a property of the mouse has provided stability and a future for the ACC.
BTW, congrats on the ten win season.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - GTTiger - 12-30-2018 07:40 PM

(12-30-2018 04:55 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:40 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 02:00 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  Looks like the ACC network just received more "coverage" from the Disney agreement with Verizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

A very interesting comment in Bloomberg's article re: the SEC network

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/verizon-disney-avert-bowl-day-blackout-with-contract-extension?srnd=premium

The agreement, if finalized, shows that pay-TV operators are still willing to pay for pricey sports channels even in an age of video streaming and declining viewership. Disney was able to win price increases for its programming and the pickup of a new channel, the ACC Network, according to a person familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified.


"The number of pay-TV subscribers who get ESPN fell 2.3 percent to 86 million last year. Less-popular Disney-owned channels, such as the SEC Network and ESPN News, experienced even greater declines."

I didn't find that so surprising since with fewer subscribers, the percentage drop would be "greater". Without having the raw data it's hard to quantify. The most important piece in the article, imho, is what you highlighted in the prior paragraph about getting price increases for its current channels as well as getting the new channel (ACCN) carried. As always, the devil will be in the details of the deal.

Cheers,
Neil


Being a property of the mouse has provided stability and a future for the ACC.
BTW, congrats on the ten win season.

With so many doomsayers, and cord cutting fears.... this is as good as the ACC Network news could be expected at this point 9 months before launch.

I'm satisfied.


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - ChrisLords - 12-30-2018 09:53 PM

If Verizon did pay "100s of millions" more on the Disney package this year and they only have 6 million subscribers, That's about an extra $2.50 to $4 per month per subscriber. Maybe Verizon can drop some of the crappier channels that no one watches to make up for the difference.


SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - TerpsNPhoenix - 12-31-2018 08:25 AM

https://twitter.com/Ourand_SBJ/status/1079449597053976576?s=19


RE: SBJ Prediciton - ACCN Launch Will be Moderate Success - OrangeDude - 12-31-2018 10:52 AM

(12-31-2018 08:25 AM)TerpsNPhoenix Wrote:  https://twitter.com/Ourand_SBJ/status/1079449597053976576?s=19

Loved some of the responses to that tweet. Especially the one that asked, "So which side caved?".

Obviously since the Blackout didn't happen it was Verizon. 03-wink

Cheers,
Neil