NCAAbbs

The situation does not look promising right now for the central gulf coast. The majority of the computer models are bringing this storm ashore between Houston and New Orleans (exact location depends on the model) sometime late Monday/early Tuesday. Current intensity forecasts indicate that this will be anywhere between a high end Cat 2/low end Cat 3 storm. But the NHC admits that they are being "conservative". Accuweather forecaster Joe Bastardi (who the energy companies rely on and pay for his services), is already warning that this could be as catastrophic as Katrina/Rita.

The other unfortunate side effect will be an increase in gas prices. This should occur sometime during the weekend as the path of Gustav becomes clearer.

Add those folks to the prayer list.

Great.........Gas prices WERE getting lower.......UGH

That's what you got from his post? It looks like people are going to die.

Sorry, that's not what I got from it. Just what I decided to comment on.

Some of the people who work on the rigs are already back in town. Takes a while to shut those things down and get the people back in. Looks like the next couple of days will tell exactly where, but the track pushing to the west/northwest looks like it the Tx/La state line (where Rita hit). The gulf is real warm right now, so now telling how strong it may get.

What matters is what the high protecting Florida currently does. If it weakens, that will steer Gustav a little further north of west (this is what should be anticipated this time of year). If it holds strong, then it will shove Gustav closer to Texas.

Either way ain't good. Direct hit on New Orleans would be devastating. A direct hit on Houston and the infrastructure that surrounds it could have far reaching, much more devastating news for all of us.

Now THAT, is a tough name.

I think this is very Tiger related because this could effect is all by Monday.

Current projections from the NWS show Gustav heading directly toward the LA and MS coasts. Some projections I have seen also have it back to a Category 4 from it's current Tropical Storm status by Monday morning. Stephen and all Tiger fans in the southern portions of states on the gulf need to be prepared to hit the road by Saturday. We are keeping an eye on this storm and I will let keep you informed as the opportunity arises.

To show you how difficult it is to predict these things, the below maps show different computer predictions and you can see they are all over the place.



This one is almost too confusing.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Gustav's intensification potential in the Gulf of Mexico
As we saw in 2005 with Katrina and Rita, the large amounts of deep, warm water brought into the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current can help intensify hurricanes to Category 5 intensity. As explained in my Loop Current tutorial, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf. The Loop Current itself can also fuel rapid intensification, such as happened with Hurricane Charley in 2004. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify. There is also a weaker eddy present in the western Gulf; this eddy broke off from the Loop Current in April, and is much cooler then the eddy that broke off in July. Should Gustav pass over the April eddy, it shouldn't make much difference.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft is scheduled to drop a network of 20-30 specialized buoys (AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav.



Figure 2.Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for the Gulf of Mexico on August 24, 2008. TCHP values in excess of 80 kJ/cm^2 (yellow colors) have been found to promote rapid intensification of hurricanes. The Loop Current is shown by the arrows at lower right, and begins in the Caribbean, flows north through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops back to the south and turns eastward over the Florida Keys. Two Loop Current Eddies have broken off from the Loop Current this year--one in April, and one in July. These eddies have drifted slowly westward, and still maintain heat from the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Personal thought is that just west of New Orleans to Mobile is the "danger zone". I think Accuweather is too far west....but as MemphisMike said, we all need to be vigilant...if it comes ashore anywhere between Houston and New Orleans, we stand to get a lot of rain by Tuesday or Wednesday.

yeah with this storm going west of new orleans is the problem major concern for us here on the nort shore acroos from nawlins is that lake ponchatrain could be dumped on ponchatoula hammond mandeville and covington

govenor jindal is already put out here that if it stays on course that there will be a mandatory evacuation of anybody south of I-12

There are 700 buses standing by to evacuate New Orleans. If the storm reaches Category at anytime within 72 hours of landfall around NO they will issue a mandatory evacuation order and the city will be locked down. There will be no large shelters opened like the Superdome so people will be forced to leave this time it's hoped. This could come as early as Friday if Gustav continues it's strengthening.

Please everyone remember Steven Conway and Dan's Fan and their family as this approaches. We'll make room for you here Danny and family someway if you need to evacuate.

i have to remember to go fill up my tank today.

Be careful of all the rain with one of these storms after a drought. I lost two cars yesterday from a healthy big red oak falling on them. The water table rose up so high that the tree was just floating around in its home.

dude are you serious ... a tree fell on both of your cars? if true, that sucks man. are you insured ... does your insurance even cover something of that nature (sorry for the pun)

Was in Mississippi during Katrina, and will now be there for Gustav. In Jackson our Population grew by half a million overnight. Our winds gusted at 80 and 90 mph with flooding bringing down more huge Trees than anyone could count. The people who came for shelter found themselves in an emergency situation, Jackson was the staging area for the rescue and utility workers. We were without power for months and gasoline was rationed. Many hurricane victims decided to stay. Hope this big blow just fizzles out and we can safely get back to Texas.

Pictures, man! Pictures!

If this thing hits Cat 3 by Sat. a.m. and just skirts past Cuba into the Gulf, it does not look good. Even a few miles west of a direct hit on NA leaves it exposed again on the dirty side.

"Only the ficus"

Katrina was projected to hit 400 miles east of New Orleans near Tallahassee. My wife and I had plane tickets to key West on Thursday. Katrina was the reason our flight was cancelled.

Thursday we decided to drive to New Orleans. The weather was beautiful, we had a great time and there wasn't a mention of Katrnina...until were flipping channels in the hotel room Saturday morning and noticed that overnight Katrina had turned west.

We decided to head back to Memphis after lunch on Saturday. After all, we'd had two full nights in New Orleans. That's typically plenty. The weather was still beautiful when we got home. Katrina didn't hit NOLA until around 6:00 AM Monday morning.

I think the latest projection modules have the storm slowing and thus not intensifying as much as it could. It will be hurricane when it makes landfall, but most likely just a strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2 if current projections hold.

Note to whoever names the hurricanes: Stay away from Russian sounding names. Katrina, Gustav, etc. The Russians are not our friends.

Man, that's sad squid. Guess that's what you get for living in such a storm zone.

Hey, I'm glad neither your nor any members of the family were around those cars and very glad it fell the way it did and not on your house.

I live down in Foley, Al (just before you get to Gulf Shores---outlet-mall) and we are concerned about Gustav. We call it a "him" a canne as opposed to a hurricane. If we are on the east side of the storm (and it appears that we will be) we will get some very high winds. We had high winds from Katrina even though the eye was just west of N.O.; water was up to the bayway that crosses I-10; and of course we took a direct hit from Ivan. Not looking forward to this week-end but will be pulling for the Tigers. They will give us the word by Saturday on evacuation.

Fsquid, you said you 'lost' two cars in the storm, but those cars look reparable to me.

I hope you're not insured with my insurance company (I'm an auto and home agent)!!

Katrina was 3 years ago tomorrow, FYI.

they are repairable. Didn't mean they were totalled. However, they are lost until Sept. 10!

to those of you who insisted on turning this into a political tirade, you can find your posts on the political forum.


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Fair enough.

This thing has taken off and exploded. It is now likely a cat 5 hurricane. My brother-in-law is in the MS national guard and has been deployed to the coast. He will be leaving tonight after the game.

Squid, that is horrible.
So sorry.
To all our fans and friends in harms way, God bless and you will all be in our prayers.

please note though that the Memphis license plate was unharmed!

Though this shot of Katrina when it hit was taken from higher up, this sort of shows how big Gustav (here just becoming a Cat 1) is going to get the next 24-36 hours. All you people on here who are getting out of harms way, be safe. Our thoughts and prayers are with you tonight.

Please be carefuk not only to those that might be in the area of the storm but also in the Memphis area as well. I'm glad that the game was tonight instead of tomorrow. Traffic was pretty heavy tonight and I saw alot of LA and AL and some TX tags. Many of the vehicles had their stuff, stuff from top to the bottom in their vehicle.

Squid, is that momma squid in a Memphis shirt in those pics?

Everyone see all the Louisiana tags on I-55. People seem to be getting quite a jump on it and headed this way.

Yes, Mrs. Squid to you.