NCAAbbs

9

and I wouldnt be shocked to win 10
I would be shocked to win less than 7

7-5 is a reasonable expectation. If the running backs come through, this offense could be unstoppable, but the pass defense needs to be much better in order to have a shot at winning C-USA.

I'm going with five. What can I say except that even six years is long enough to become jaded as a Rice football fan.

Schedule is manageable. Seven is a possibility but we have to start it off right this Friday night and actually win some games in September for a change. I'll predict 6-6 and hope for the best.

8 wins in the regular season. Add one in a bowl. Two good years over a three year span marks a true turning point and the gradual rise of the program. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

As I said in the "potential" thread, I could see anywhere from 5 to 8/9 wins plus maybe one in a bowl game if 7 or over. I would, if forced, narrow that to 6 or 7, depending on whether the ball bounces like it did my freshman year ('06-'07) or my sophomore year ('07-'08). And, as I said on the other thread, I will have a exact number by halftime of the SMU game...

14!

Hey, it's August and somebody had to say it.

Go Owls!

5-7

SMU, UNT, Tulane, Army, Marshall.

Hope I am "under" by at least 2 . . .

I predict a win over SMU.

I like the way you think, sir.

5 wins
I hope I'm wrong, but it's hard to expect to double the number of wins with the continued question marks at defense and the running game. Both will need to really step up to win more than that.

I'd be satisfied with slow and steady improvement for the next 2-3 years if it can turn Rice into a dependable 6 to 8 wins-a-year team that earns a bowl bid once every two years.

Maybe I'm shooting low, but five bowls in a decade would be a massive step up from the last forty years.

6

We're definitely sounding better than last year, but it would take some crazy luck to get to the 8 or 9 some people predict. Nine is definitely possible though! Maybe if we all pray real hard...

I think a lot hinges on the first game. If we win and do well, the momentum will carry over.

I'll go with 6 as well, hoping that it's more of a floor than a ceiling for this year's record.

There's no doubt that our personnel is the best in recent years. This year should, I hope, show the ability of DB and his staff to manage game situations to the Owls' advantage. Also, I'd like to see us play well in those games in which we're the favorite, and that the team keeps up its intensity and effectiveness through the fourth quarter. No late-game swoons!

Go Owls!!

C'mon people - this is CUSA.
Every team is basically even with every other team.
With average breaks and an average team we should go 4-4 in conference. Since we should be above average this year and favored in 2 of our non-conf. games, we should go 7-5.
We have a chance, however, to really take our program to the next level by beating Vandy, hanging fairly close with texas, and finishing with 9 or 10 wins before the post-season. (As a long-time Rice fan, however, I realize huge disappointment is more than likely right around the corner.)

Go Owls!

Thrill is right, as usual. Nine wins, +/- 2.

Some of y'all may think i am optimisitic; I think you are pessimistic(NOT realistic!!!!!). Six years may be enough to temper some people's enthusiasm, but 45 years is not enough to destroy mine.

Offense: look at the way we finished, the guys we have returning, and the guys we are adding. I expect the offense to do 38+ points in 8 pf the 11 non-UT games.

Defense: Besides the 3 games we won last year, 4 more were in the 8-points-or-less-margin category. Do i think our defense will be better? I do. We are adding some really good players - AGN, Ben, Jammer. Plus, some other teams are losing a Smith, we are getting one back.

Special teams: I don't see any reason at this point to think we will be any better - or any worse.

Coaching - we will see if a spring with plenty of players and an extra year with the returning players pays dividends om the form of less missed assignments and better teamwork. I think it will.

So, just a feather away from 7 wins last year + expected improvements = 9 wins.

I agree that a win this Friday sets the table for such a season, and a loss hurts in many ways. Biggest game of the year, AFAIAC.

I think realistically we will lose a game we should win, win a game we should lose, play well overall and end up at 7-5, 8-5 after the bowl.

If we win the first 2 games, then I'm predicting 8-4!

Well, it is part of your chosen name...

The rest of this isn't directed at Optimistic or anyone in particular.

I remember very clearly halfway through last year, when we were 1-5 with a D1-AA loss, and people were predicting that we'd finish 7-5. Then we were 1-6 and people were predicting that we'd end up 6-6. Based on what we had seen then, that wasn't just optimistic, it was downright delusional. We were not a good football team, and our problems went way beyond talent.

I thought one of the problems last year was that the players and coaches did too much looking forward past the game at hand. Some of the players' comments this year have confirmed that. They said they're really focusing on one game at a time now. I don't know how many of them read this board, or how much it affects their mindset, but I'm going to buy into that approach and not make any major predictions beyond the next game.

So, my prediction is 1-0.

Yeah, I was making a play off of my name.

I don't remember the optimism at the times times you say. I remember griping, complaints, and dismay, but not optimism. Maybe you were around more optimistic people than I was. After attending the Nichols St. and Baylor games, I must confess to a decided lack of optimism. I felt much better about everything in the latter half.

The one-game-at-a-time approach is correct, and if the team/coaches were not following that last year they had better do it this year.

But we were asked to predict our win total, not game by game. So I did. I cannot predict our bowl game outcome until I know the opponent, so I restricted myself to the regular season.

I agree with wrysal..7-5 seems about right. That is, if all the fairly rosy reports from our most recent football camp come close to being true. That said, a bunch of injuries to key personnel (like last year), and we are looking at 4-8, or worse. If we get the bounces like year before last..well, 9-3? But for most of us long-suffering Rice football fans, that number seems a dream.

And I didn't.

I've generally been wrong anyway, usually on the high side. '05 was unfortunately the only year I got it right. '01 was the only time I remember being low. Maybe '96 too, but I don't clearly remember my expectations for that year. In Hatfield's other years I expected at least 6, sometimes more. I didn't make a prediction for '06 -- if I had I would've been a bit low then. I thought we'd be in the 7 to 9 range last year, which turned out to be way off base.

I don't mind being wrong, but the situation last year, the one I described before, really irked me. I guess they thought we needed some positivity, which may have been true, but we also didn't need any illusion that what we had been doing would suddenly start to work. So from now on it's one game at a time for me and hopefully the team.

Hey, that's exactly what I was going to say! Let's hope this "season" against SMU goes well.

(if pressed, I'd guess a number between 2 and 10 wins for 2008 .... let's say 7)

Ba-da-BOOM!!

Ok, follow your own drum major (remember Animal House?) but just to satisfy my curiousity - is this just for the first game or will you (and UT Ceng, if he wants), make a weekly prediction on the "win total" thread? Next week might you be predicting 2-0, the week after 3-0, the week after...oh, you get it. You two could be the new weekly prediction show. Bring in THRILL for a little (off) color comentary on the cheer squads? OldSammy could comment on the legal troubles of the opposing team...this has possibilities.

I'll go with 7. Granted, I'm banking on us staying healthy enough but what the hell, got to have faith.

Wins: SMU, North Texas, Army, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, Houston (about time we take back the bucket)

And those of us on-campus could provide "man-on-the-street" or "campus pulse" reports...

10-4

Hmm... I haven't figured out the series yet. Help me out a little more.

Hint: it starts with "4".

Hey, we won 6 games in 4 YEARS at Rice. I predict 7-8 this year, depends on Vandy game.

I haven't walked through the permutations, but I'm settling in on 7 wins in the regular season.

way to put that RICE edumacation to work

I'm predicting 14 wins...run the table. I hope that's what the players would say if they were asked.

Would be thrilled with 8-5

I think the SMU game will really tell about this team. I see it as a game that is not only winnable, but if it is not won, then I am getting ready for a long season. The offense is just too potent not to be a force to be reckoned with. And the defense... well, the only place to go after hitting rock bottom is... (and yes, I do think we hit rock bottom with the defense last year).

So if we win the SMU game, then a 9 win season is a real possibility. If we lose, I think we are looking at a 4 or 5 win effort.

Tex obviously counting the CUSA championship and the liberty bowl victories.

The last time Rice won 9 games in a regular season was in 1949 (in a 10 game regular season, no less).

like I said hes putting that degree to work
I like the way he thinks

This isn't meant to be a flame, but how do you see your defense fairing this year?

At worst, no better than last year. But I don't see that happening for several reasons. First of all, Bailiff and all the players now have one full season, plus all of camp to get the system down. That many reps in the same system provides for familiarity and confidence playing defense. Secondly, more depth. If the injury bug rears its ugly little head, I don't think we will be as understaffed as last year. At the very least I don't think we will have to play as many true freshmen. Third, Bailiff is heralded as a "defensive genius". If this has any merit, then I expect there to be an improvement on defense. Overall, I just don't see us being as bad as last year and in fact I think our defense will help us win this year. That is why I think we can win many more games this year than last.

I think it stands a chance to be a good bit better but it will depend greatly on the injury issue. One thing Baliff seems to have done is attracted better D Line recruits...our Canadian connection seems to have turned up a winner in AGN.

The defense is healthy, more athletic, more experienced, and is showing signs of comfort/familiarity with the schemes, so we're optimistic we'll be able to slow offenses significantly better than last year.

I'd say were 3 points better on defense just because of experience with the system. When you add the new players and the again healthy ones, I could argue we're even more than that. The offense should be better (if that is possible) as well, and I hope we avoid the painfully slow start we had last year. We still lack an effective running game (on paper anyway) but I am hopeful that with Thor, a more experienced line and some trickery (shovel passes, misdirection plays etc) that we can be effective when needed.

Most importantly, I believe that we should be more opportunistic on defense (because we're playing rather than thinking all the time) and less careless on offense (fewer missed assignments/misreads) so our turnover margin should improve.

I could EASILY see a 10 point swing in scoring differential

Yeah. Ware was talking about you guys again this morning.

But Vandermere totally annoys the crap out of me sometimes. I know he was trying to give Rice props because he says:

"You have Rice making the CUSA Championship..but losing to East Carolina?!?"

I cannot stand when this guy makes comments out of disbelief when he has no clue about CUSA. He was probably surprised Rice was picked to make the Champ game as well (that's what I got).

I would not be surprised if ECU won the Conference with the returner starters they have on defense. Neither would anyone who has any sort of knowledge on the Conference whatsoever.

It's a legitimate question. I caught the last few minutes of Coach Balliff's interview on 610 this morning. I don't remember the exact numbers he cited, but it was something to the effect that on 95% or so of the plays from scrimmage, we gave up an average of 3.3 yards. On the remainder, we gave up an average of 30 yards. I've always been concerned that we're outsized on defense, but he made an interesting point. He said it's not so much a question of being mismatched but of players being misaligned, maybe by just a matter of inches, but that such msialignment could have a big impact.

He was very encouraged by the enthusiasm of the practices and the chemistry on the team. But he didn't pull any punches either. He said special teams play last year was "awful." If I understood correctly, he said part of the problem on kickoffs is that coverage is based on the assumption that the kick is going down the middle, and when it doesn't we don't react well.

I think a lot has to fall our way to win the conference... but stranger things have happened. With the new faces in important positions at Tulsa, SMU and UH... LOTS could happen in the west that one wouldn't predict going in.

Those of us who watch Rice closely know that 3-5 in conference last year did not reflect our overall level of talent... though it might have reflected our experience with the staff and our health. Our overall talent has improved... not necessarily because all of the newcomers are better athletes than those graduating (how do you replace J-Strong?)... but because we have more of what we need... and key players are returning from injuries. We are also inarguably more experience with the staff. Injuries are a wild-card... but they are for other teams as well.

5 wins would be an improvement, but a disappointing one. 6-8 would be about what I expect... depending on breaks... 9+ isn't unrealistic given how the schedule shakes out... especially if the other "big" teams in the west don't gel quickly.

I'm looking like a genius

way to dig up an ancient thread for self-promotion.
I would expect nothing less

I got all confused as to wtf this thread was...figured it out now. yay THRILL. You're brilliant.

Do not underestimate the importance of the Memphis comeback. Turn that one the other way, and you wonder whether we have the fortitude to turn or hold some of the other games, e.g. UTEP. A few things break differently, and we're 5-6.

Which is why we should enjoy this all that much more.

Yes, it's all reminding me very much of 2006. Close games, season-ending win streak, talk of a bowl game. Let's hope that we continue that winning streak at least 2 more games.