NCAAbbs

Is Ukraine next?

Are we seeing the start of the USSR part deux?

Would they have been so bolden if we were not so bogged down in Iraq?

The treaty they signed:


Georgia has been compelled to agree to an international treaty (on the non-use of force regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia) that it had been refusing to sign, effectively coerced by the presence of Russian forces on Georgian soil and continued aerial attacks.

The military situation is NOT a return to the status quo ante:

Russian air attacks and ground fighting have severely degraded the Georgian military, so that it is not in any way comparable to the force Georgia had before the fighting began; Russian losses have been trivial in comparison with Russia’s military power

The agreement does not appear to contain provisions for the presence of Georgian peacekeepers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, even though the 1992 agreement by which Russian forces are there stipulated a tripartite peacekeeping force.

Saakashvili has apparently requested that Russia leave in place only the same kinds of troops that had been present in Georgia previously (i.e., not armored forces or crack troops), but it is not clear that that demand is reflected in the actual agreement.

The political/diplomatic situation is also not a return to the status quo ante:
Although the agreement requires both sides to enter negotiations about the future status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian leadership has repeatedly declared that it will not negotiate with Saakashvili, that Saakashvili is no longer a “partner,” and so on, so the terms of the negotiation will be very different from those that existed before this conflict

The Russian Attorney General has declared that Russia can charge Saakashvili or any other Georgian official with crimes under Russian law, and an investigative commission has been set up in Vladikavkaz to make the case

The Russian leadership has repeatedly declared that it cannot see any circumstance in which Abkhazia and South Ossetia would “return” to Georgian state control

The international agreement on the non-use of force the Russians just compelled Saakashvili to sign now also has the imprimatur of the European Union, since it was presented by Sarkozy in his capacity as EU president—previously it had been a document under negotiation between Georgia and Russia without external participation

In sum, there has been no compromise. Russia has imposed its demands upon Georgia by force, under coercion and in the midst of partial military occupation, under the auspices of the European Union.


ALL OF THIS UNDER BUSH"S WATCH. I wonder if he can gaze into someone's eyes and make it all go away. Before taking pot shots at Obama think about what is happening right now under whose watch and what we can do about it?

Didn't the Geourgians bring this upon themselves?

I thought I heard that they started this by attacking an area that either wanted independance or to join Russia. Sounds like they are getting what they deserve if this is true.

Plus it is not our job to assist every country that claims they want to be a democracy.

QF MF T

I remember when the then-Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Jimmy Carter was famous for liking one-page brief sheets which briefly outlined the situation and listed options and recommendations. Carter could then check the option that he decided on.

Carter asked for such a brief on what to do about the Soviet invasion. In this case, the staff came back with two options:

1. Nuke Moscow
2. Boycott the Olympics

We know which option Carter chose.

I'm afraid we are in a similar box on this one. Except it's China, not Russia, that's hosting the Olympics this time.

I don't know what you're expecting, but folks, there just aren't a lot of options.

This attitude quickly gets us and other democracies surrounded by dictatorships, banana republics, -stans, and other associated hostile quasi / non-elected / brutal governments. For those of us the believe that the best way to elevate humanity is through democracy and capitalism, we need to maintain support for fledgling republics.

While US military intervention is not right for Georgia, supporting their desire for democracy, and any other country's desire for democracy, should be Job #1 for US foreign policy. Georgia is a small imperfect country in middle Asia and friends to America, in an area not exactly teeming with friends. A shooting war with Russia leaves no winners, but a quasi-proxy war fought with aid to the Georgians and diplomatic condemnations might keep the Russian bear in the cage, which is probably Job #3 or #4 nowadays anyway.

The world is a dangerous place. But it's in American interests to have democratic governments. As opposed to a world of China, Burma, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Venenzuela and Russia? I know who I stand with, and it ain't them.

And in general, the EU and ASEAN and other NGO aren't exactly stepping up to the plate to support, well, anything, so if it ain't us, who is it?

For instance, our almost total disregard for the African continent has allowed China to start Round II of the game of Colony. That bodes nothing good for American interests. It probably bodes nothing good for YOUR interests either.

I swear, some of you would be perfectly at home in a cinder block and wood bunker in Montana, polishing your knob to John Birch.

The Clayton Williams line about weather and something else - there's not a lot you can do, so just sit back and enjoy it.

Bush said that Air Force C-17's and US Naval vessels would be delivering humanitarian aid. Park US Navy vessels in some Georgian harbors, and I bet Putin won't be bombing those towns.

Dear NATO:

We would like to join your organization as soon as possible. Like next week!

Sincerely,

The Ukrainians

No one answered my original question. Did the Georgians bring this on themselves by attacking an area seeking independance or to join Russie?

Finally read the other thread on this topic and I definitely think we should not be involved.

I am sorry but if these so called "democracies" want to make, it has to be the will of the citizens of those countries. The US has to stumble it's way through to become the country it is today, why can't these other countries do the same.

I say that we should sit this one out and let the UN deal with it. (yeah, right)

+1....We wont be stepping into this fray..other than talking smack about it from afar.
Seeya 9/27 in Greenville, Uh95....Tell your Coogs to have thier chinstraps buckled.

I wouldn't know what really happened before. Our news only talks about Brittney's custody battle and depression, and who father John Edward's mistresses child. What ever happened to actual news?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/u...index.html

It looks like sitting this one out might not be an option & we've already picked a side.

This reminds me of a year ago. Last year around this time the Ukranians hosted Sea Breeze in an attempt to woo NATO (or so it was explained to us). We saw some old-school Soviet loyalists while heading out for liberty protesting on the pier. I think there was also talk of some sort of base in the Ukraine for either NATO or US warships (I can't remember all the details, but your comments sparked some memories).

the Ukrainians are very aware of what Putin is capable of, not too long ago......Poison



reading the tea leaves, Russia has been slowly building back up to this point for sometime. We either stand with free independent Democracies which respect Human Rights are we feed them to the Russian Bear, strengthen Russia and their Nationalistic Pride in the process on route to another cold war.

and americans are despicably out there trying to defend Russia.. Its a great age to be a villian.

I damn sure don't want to get involved, because I think Europe needs to take a f'n stance, for once in their pathetic lives, but no, Georgia isn't in the wrong. South Ossetia is part of Georgia. However, I think Georgia should cut'em lose. If the north, Pacific Northwest, the West, and New England wanted to form their own country, hell, I'd campaign for'em. The South, these days, are the Spartans. The rest of the country are the damn Athenians.

...as for South Ossetia, they'll be begging to rejoin Georgia in, at most, 5 years. ....to which I'd tell'em to pound sand.

While I very much appreciate Georgia's support in the Iraq war, I'm hoping we nudge the EU into the lead on this issue. I don't mind if we help the EU crank the diplomacy cogs, but I sure don't want to order our troops into this mess. We could of course just let the UN handle it, but that's the same as doing nothing. The security counsel wouldn't even be able to issue one of their worthless resolutions with Russia's veto power.

Sorry Georgia, we're spent and we're broke.

The US didn't have a nuclear armed army 25 times its size righ on its border. It also didn't have the most important oil pipeline in the region running right through the center of it.

The EU needs to step up but they want. Despite all the blustering the EU countries do about the US and its policies we're the first ones they come running to when crap like this hits.

Fact of the matter is we're the only country with the leverage and political will to do what must be done. The cold war is a perfect example. We led, everyone else followed. With Russia reasserting itself, these countries quickly go back to the cold war mindset and run home to momma as it were.

It's in our best interests not to let China and Russia run over these smaller democracies. Isolationism got us Hitler and WWII.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

ALL the more reason to start a "moonshot effort" for an alternative fuel. Yesterday!!!!!

I am sorry but the Geogians are trying to subjogate people who do not want to be part of their country. Does not sound like they are following the path of freedom to me.

I understand that Russia casts a giant shadow over the smaller countries surrounding it, but to start initiate a war that you could not win and agitate them, just isn't smart.

I agree with Rebel on this one. Let those guys check out the grass on the other side of the fance.

South Ossetentia is inside the Internionally recongized border of Georgia and has been for well over a decade now. Here's a few questions for you:

1) Can a President of a nation make decisions regarding events within the recognized borders of that nation?

2) Can a government of a recognized nation act to control crime, control the illegal influx of falsely documented foreign nationals into that country ?

3) Can a President or government dispatch its own military and security forces within its own borders to qwell lethal threats to the stability of that nation?

4) How long, from a standing start, with no prior notice, does it take a brigade of troops at rest, to enter a combat zone with complete kit and gear, full ammunition/basic load, move through severe terrain over gravel roads to get to the FEBA and then advance toward the target?


The Russians were clearly planning this LONG BEFORE the Georgian Govt. made their move to stop the chaos in South Ossetentia. It was a game, well executed but when you have an international media as gullible and stupid as ours it makes it alot easier for Villains to be Villains.


You guys can whine all you want about this "not being our fight", which it isn't completely as Europe and the rest of the Industrialized world have interest here. But if we stand around and let these Autocratic powers consolidate Oil interest and have the ability to literally have us at their mercy by extension of the World Market Price of oil/Energy then perhaps you'll get it. It just may take the power to your Keyboards, Air Conditioning, Xbox, Big Screen TV and of course Cars to be disrupted first.

This stuff, Middle East, Iran, etc....is the Defense of Modern Liberty! It's a globalized world increasingly and has been for a long time. There is no Fortress America to hide behind.

btw, I guess you now think the South was right in the Civil War? and the North/Union the agressors who are out of line?

Welcome to the confederacy! although I still must point out a key distinction, the South was right because it was written into their constitution they signed on to that they could opt out/seceed. Not the same as this georgian mess.

I think that's a very naive reading of what's happened. The Soviets moved ethnic Russians in to many regions of the former Soviet Union. What they have indisputably been doing is supporting ethnic Russians in guerilla warfare against the Georgians. What's in dispute is whether the Russians have agitated this issue to the point of the current violence, or whether the Georgians are at fault due to their own miscalculations. The allegations are pretty severe on both sides - the Russians allege that ~2000 have been killed by Georgian bombing while there are reports that Russians and/or Russian proxies have forced up to 100,000 civilians out of their homes and have been looting in Georgian territory.

As far as subjugation, I think that's a myth manufactured by the Russians - there would likely be no conflict if it weren't for Russian agitation in Georgia. If the Russians had any genuine concern about that, then they wouldn't have done in Chechnya what is many times worse than what they allege Georgia has done.

edit: overestimated Ossetian casualties

While I believe the Russians have manipulated this situation to their benefit, I haven't seen anything in the little I've read to suggest that South Ossetia's desire for independence is anything less than authentic (for at least a large segment of the population). As I understand it, the Ossetians are ethnically diverse from both the Russians & Georgians (though there are also members of both other ethnicities in South Ossetia) and South Ossetia does not ever appear to have been a really willing part of Georgia. The current conflict started in 1989, two years before Georgia gained its independence, and by 1992 a ceasefire, granting South Ossetia semi-autonomous status, was enacted. To me, this seems to be another in a long line of cases of governments ignoring the will of the people & doing a horrible job in drawing up boundaries.

I also believe that Russia should allow Chechneya to secede & am in no way excusing their actions.

And yes, I do believe the South should have been allowed to secede before the Civil War and that they were right on many of the issues. The notable exception was slavery, but that really wasn't what the war was about. If it was, the Emancipation Proclamation would have come much earlier & would have actually freed slaves in the Union States & occupied territories.

haha, the war of northern aggression!

Isn't THAT a pile of . I wish all that crap was relegated to WE or oxygn or whatever the hell they call those stations. I just go by them on the way to reality. Sick stuff for sick excuses for humans. Murder and mayhem is growing programming for some reason. The audience for this stuff has gone MAD ! !

Yeah, I read the wikipedia page too. Human Rights Watch seems to be more heavily condemning the Russians than the Georgians. The Russian pretext allegations - 1500 killed by the Georgians - seems to be vacuous. HRW said that doctors had seen just a few hundred patients and they were mostly combatants. Meanwhile, HRW alleges the use of cluster bombs in cities by the Russians with substantial evidence to back the claim in spite of Russian denials.

A telling statement by HRW: "In recent years, Russia has granted Russian citizenship to residents of South Ossetia." That sounds awfully like the Nazis giving German citizenship to the people of Poland in 1938.

Kudos to HRW for speaking out against / standing up for what they believe in. Code Pink, ANSWER and the rest of the traditional "anti-war" coalitions have little or nothing to say. It's almost as if they only want to poke sticks at America, hmmmmmm......

I've always respected their objectivity, even when it's been critical of the US (delving too much into political issues like the ICC, in my opinion). But, they usually back up what they say.

I'm not arguing that Russia is justified in this particular instance, and I fully admit that I'd never heard of South Ossetia before this week. What I am asking is, is it possible that while Russia is in the wrong right now (with regards to their invasion of Georgia), Georgia is also in the wrong with regards to their overall treatment of South Ossetia?

I see two entirely separate issues. First, was Russia justified in invading Georgia (and while I think the Georgian president badly overplayed his hand, the answer is most likely no). The second, more fundemental question, is should South Ossetia be allowed its independence (and on this one I see no reason why they shouldn't be allowed)?

I don't even think independence is an option. There are something like 60,000 people in South Ossetia. If they succeed, they'd likely be annexed by Russia.

Bolton's take:

its imperative we do not allow any of Russia's actions to be perceived as "justified"

Obama's plan:

Would that be so bad, if that's what the people of South Ossetia really want (the internal political situation in South Ossetia seems to be as murky as their external situation)? It's hard for me to understand why a people would want to align themselves with Russia at this point, but if they do who are we (or anyone else) to stand in their way? They seem to be a bad fit where they are, why not let them go?