NCAAbbs

Whay is your take on some of these players who are off to surprisingly hot starts?

Casey Blake, Indians - Leading the majors with a .362 average. Also on pace for about 25 homers and 100 RBI. I expect him to have a solid power year, but I wouldn't be surprised if his average winds up dipping under .300.

The verdict: Abberation

Alex Rios, Blue Jays - Not far behind Blake for the league lead in batting. He's also hitting for big-time power for the first time in his career. But it's not that surprising to me. He's a big time talent who's been surrounded by some good hitters. Don't look for him to bat .353 all year, but do expect a great all-around season.

The verdict: For real

Brad Ausmus, Astros - Not hitting for power, but his .325 average is a huge surprise. This is a guy who's never hit over .275. There's a good reason for it. He'll cool off.

The verdict: Abberation

Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay - You may not have know much about him coming into this year, but he very quietly had a great season for the Devil Rays last year. He's a big-time slugger who will only get better.

The verdict: For real

Jose Lopez, Seattle - He's already matched his home run total from the last two years combined and is on pace for well over 100 runs. He's a much improved hitter, but Safeco will take a toll on his numbers eventually.

The verdict: Abberation

Chris Shelton, Detroit - He's not getting the attention he was getting a few weeks ago, but he's still got great numbers. He's a good hitter on a good team. Look for a .290 average with around 30 homers.

The verdict: For real

Mike Maroth, Detroit - Has been a stud so far for the team with the best record in baseball. He's a solid pitcher who may have turned the corner, but he's started off hot before. He should have a good year, but no one he comes close to maintaining that 2.45 ERA.

The verdict: Abberation

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati - Where did this come from? Bronson's always been good, but not this good. Call me crazy, but I think he'll keep it up. He seems to have taken to the role of being a staff anchor.

The verdict: For real

Justin Verlander, Detroit - We all knew he had supreme stuff, but no one expected him to dominate the way that he has so far this quickly. Believe the hype. This kid will win Rookie of the Year in the American League before adding bigger and better trophies to his case in the future.

The verdict: For real

Jamey Wright, San Francisco - Talking about him in another thread gave me the idea for this topic. Like I said in that thread, he's a solid 5th starter, but he won't maintain his success so far.

The verdict: Abberation

Jon Papelbon, Boston - Like Verlander, we knew he'd be great, just not this soon. A 0.40 ERA and 15 saves already? No, he won't keep up that pace all year, but he should be one of the best closers in the game all season long.

The verdict: For real

Thoughts? Comments? Any other guys worth discussing that I left out?

Casey Blake: abberation

Alexis Rios: for real, he has been a top notch prospect for awhile. Wells and Rios will be a quite a outfield duo.

Brad Asmus: Aberration


Johny Gomes: for real

Bronson Arroyo: for real, i doubt he finished with a low 2 era but he will be a very good pitcher

Chris Shelton: the average is where it will be, he won't hit close to 30 homers, my guess is around 20

Jose Lopez: aberration

Verlander: for real

Paplebon: he will go into a funk, but he is for real

I would also add Brandon Phillips:
.308/.340/.469 4 home runs 31 rbis (tied for the team lead) and 9 sb
For real, he has always had mega talent and he is putting into together this year. He was on fire to start and then he went into a mega slump, but he hit his way out of it and he is hitting really well lately. 8 hits in his like 13 at bats or something like that.

Blake: he's always had some talent, but if he ends up hitting over .300, i'll be pretty surprised.

Rios: the scouts seem to be right about this one. sometimes power is the last thing to come. he has a nice swing and good power the other way. i think he's pretty much for real.

Ausmus: he'll be like every other player and pretty much end up doing what he's always done.

Gomes: not sure why gomes is even in this thread. he did the same thing last year and has done the same thing in the minors.

Arroyo: he'll be as for real as possible. is his ERA gonna be under 3? no way, but could he win 15-18 games with a 3.50 ERA, yes. if he does that, he'd be worth his weight in gold.

Shelton: definitely for real. this is the kind of guy the giants don't have, a pure hitter, nothing more, nothing less. he'll put up 25-30, with a .290 average.

Lopez: def. and aberration. he's an excellent fielder, but has never been much of a hitter and doesn't have great plate prescence.

Verlander: Another guy that i'm not sure why he's on the list. Will he be for real for his career? Yes. Could his ERA get up to 4.00 this year? Sure. But i think he'll end up winning 15, with a 3.50 ERA. He's sick, so is zumaya.

Papelbon: Are you asking if he's filthy? because if that's it, then yes he is. Could he slide in the 2nd half? probably. he's thrown a lot of innings so far and has never pitched in a pennant race pressure cooker.

Maroth: i've always liked him and he's finally starting to show his potential. WIll his ERA stay under 3? No. But he's a very good back end of the rotation starter. A kirk Rueter type.

Wright: I think he's as real as he can be. I honestly think this will be by far his best season. But if you're asking if he'll win 18 games, with a 3.50 ERA and 210 innings, than he's an aberration. But we aren't expecting that. Could he win 15, with a 3.90 ERA and 190-200 innings? possibly. it's amazingly early.

Phillips: i'm still gonna say aberration. i don't see him ending up higher than .270. But i'm sure the reds would take that, seeing as how this is guy who didn't seem to be able to hit .170.